There is disagreement on whether these verse belong with the preceding section, or are part of the rest of this chapter.
Cedars were a key part of the building of the temple and palace, and cedars were representative of the wealth of Lebanon.
In verse 3 the word shepherds is used in the sense of representing the leaders (which is why it is seen as tying in with the rest of the chapter).
We now come to the main topic of the chapter, the shepherding of Israel. There are also clear prophecies of things that happened to Jesus. We often speak as if only a people were properly led then everything would be Ok. This chapter gives the lie to that notion.
The flock was marked for slaughter, and the flock is Israel. Now just because God knows or has fordained that something will happen does not mean that the events and the decisions made by the people are not real.
Zechariah was to shepherd the flock. Their previous leaders did not care for them properly. Given that Ezra and Nehemiah were good leaders, I think we have to take this as looking back over the longer term of Israel’s history. God declares that a time would come when He would no longer have pity on the people. They would be handed over to their enemies without anyone to rescue them. A fulfilment of this can be seen in the Roman occupation, and the destruction of Jerusalem in AD66-70.
Now this might seem grossly unfair on the people. Not their fault that they had bad leaders, but God will first demonstrate that the people are guilty as well. That is why they are referred to as the “flock marked for slaughter”. So Zechariah had two staffs, one marked Favour and the other Union. The favour of God and unity are signs of successful leadership. Verse 8 seems to show that this was not merely a symbolic acting out by Zechariah, he actually did some leading and got rid of three bad leaders.
One might have thought that the people would be grateful for this, but instead they detested him. So Zechariah abandons the flock. “Let those who are left eat one another’s flesh”. This had happened in the Babylonian siege of Jerusalem, I guess similar things happened in AD66-70. When Jesus came He did miracles, healed the sick, set the possessed free, showed mercy and love, taught righteously. What was the response of the people? Crucify Him! All of us are guilty.
So Zechariah broke his staff called Favour. The nation did not realise just how much they lived under the favour of God. Now they would realise the full consequences of their abandoning God.
Verse 12 is clearly looking forward to Judas being paid thirty pieces of silver ot betray Jesus. Then afterwards it was given to the potter’s field.
Then Unity was broken, breaking the bond between Israel and Judah. Now this had of course happened many years before hand. So perhaps there is both a looking back and a looking forward in all this.
So the good shepherd would be replaced by a bad shepherd. This shepherd would not care for the weak or seek the lost. Instead he would just exploit the people. This shepherd would suffer judgement.